Question 1

How accurate are your predictions?

Accepted Answer

We produce a range, not a single date. The low end is the P50 (median) and the high end is the P93 (93% of cases complete by that time). In past data these bounds capture most non-RFE cases. Accuracy depends on the selected form and subtype; see the Methodology page for the full model and limitations.

Question 2

Where does your data come from?

Accepted Answer

Three public USCIS sources: the current processing times page, the historic processing times tool, and the quarterly Immigration and Citizenship Data XLSX files. We also use the US Department of State's monthly Visa Bulletin. No private data or case lookups — only official aggregates.

Question 3

Why does USCIS publish percentiles instead of averages?

Accepted Answer

Case processing times are skewed: most cases finish in a typical window, but a small tail takes much longer (RFEs, background checks, policy changes). A mean can be dragged way off by that tail. Percentiles describe the middle and slow end separately, so a slower set of outliers doesn't distort the 'typical' wait.

Question 4

What does the 93rd percentile mean?

Accepted Answer

P93 means 93% of completed cases finished within that time. Put differently: if your case finishes after P93, it's in the slowest 7% of comparable cases. We use it as the upper bound of the prediction range because USCIS itself reports it as the 'slower' end of the distribution.

Question 5

Why are service centers so different?

Accepted Answer

USCIS distributes workload across facilities based on geographic routing, form type, and available adjudicator capacity. Transfers happen. At present USCIS publishes processing times at the national level only; when per-center data returns, we will surface it.

Question 6

Why doesn't this let me look up my specific case status?

Accepted Answer

Live case lookup requires a direct USCIS integration. That's on the V2 roadmap. For now, CasePredictor focuses on aggregate forecasting — use the USCIS Case Status tool (egov.uscis.gov) for your specific case.

Question 7

Is this affiliated with USCIS?

Accepted Answer

No. CasePredictor is an independent project. We use only publicly available USCIS and Department of State data and are not endorsed by or associated with either agency.

Question 8

What forms do you support?

Accepted Answer

Currently: I-485, I-130, N-400, I-765, I-140, I-129, and I-131. These are the seven forms USCIS reports with enough historical depth to produce meaningful analytics. See the Forms section in the main navigation for individual form pages.

Question 9

How often is the data updated?

Accepted Answer

Our automated pipeline re-scrapes USCIS processing times monthly and the Visa Bulletin as soon as it's published (usually mid-month). Quarterly volume data is updated within a week of each XLSX release. The 'Data last updated' line on the home page shows the most recent refresh.

Question 10

Can my lawyer use this?

Accepted Answer

Yes — immigration attorneys use our charts to set client expectations, compare filing strategies, and track how movement in the visa bulletin affects their caseload. Everything is data-driven and sourced, so it's easy to cross-check with USCIS's own tools.

Question 11

How does I-485 processing work?

Accepted Answer

I-485 (Adjustment of Status) is the form used to apply for a green card from inside the US. Processing involves biometrics, background checks, optional interview, and (for employment-based cases) waiting for a visa number to be available based on your priority date. The I-485 page shows subtype-level timelines.

Question 12

What's the current I-130 processing time?

Accepted Answer

I-130 (Petition for Alien Relative) times vary dramatically by relationship (immediate relative vs. F1/F2/F3/F4). Visit our I-130 form page for current P50/P93 by subtype and a trend chart.

Question 13

How long does N-400 naturalization take?

Accepted Answer

N-400 typical timelines have fluctuated between 5-15 months depending on field office. Times include biometrics, interview scheduling, and the oath ceremony. The N-400 form page shows the current median and historical trend.

Question 14

Why is my I-765 EAD taking longer than the median?

Accepted Answer

A few common reasons: concurrent-filed EADs follow the I-485 timeline, not the standalone I-765 timeline; certain categories (e.g., c(08) asylum) have their own processing queues; biometrics delays; and occasional re-filings after denials. The I-765 page breaks this out by category code.

Question 15

Does premium processing work for I-140?

Accepted Answer

Yes — premium processing is available for most I-140 classifications with a set response window from USCIS. It does not guarantee approval, only a response (approval, RFE, NOID, or denial). The I-140 form page notes which classifications are premium-eligible.

Question 16

How is I-129 different from I-140?

Accepted Answer

I-129 is for nonimmigrant (temporary) workers — H-1B, L-1, O-1, TN, etc. I-140 is for immigrant (permanent) workers on the green card path. Different processing queues and different visa categories at the Department of State. Both are premium-eligible for most classifications.

Question 17

What is I-131 and when should I file it?

Accepted Answer

I-131 is the Application for Travel Document. Adjustment-of-status applicants file it for Advance Parole (international travel while I-485 is pending). Typical processing takes several months, so most attorneys recommend filing concurrently with the I-485.

Question 18

How do I read the visa bulletin chart?

Accepted Answer

Each row in our Visa Bulletin Tracker shows a priority date cutoff over time. A rising line means the cutoff is advancing (good). A flat line means it's stuck. A falling line is retrogression. When a cell shows 'C', any priority date in that category/country is current.

Question 19

Why did the EB2 India cutoff retrogress?

Accepted Answer

Mid-fiscal-year retrogressions happen when demand exceeds the annual quota. USCIS pulls the cutoff backward to stay within numerical limits. Cutoffs typically advance again in October when the new fiscal year resets. See our Visa Bulletin Tracker for the history.

Question 20

Can you predict when my priority date will become current?

Accepted Answer

We offer a linear projection on the Visa Bulletin page: at the current 12-month pace of forward movement, when would a given priority date reach today's cutoff? This is a simple extrapolation, not a forecast. Actual movement depends on quota, demand, and policy changes that can't be modeled from historical data alone.

Frequently Asked Questions