USCIS adjudication pace slowed sharply in 2026; cases pending over six months near 5.4 million
Analysis of USCIS data shows the agency completed far fewer cases in early 2026 than a year earlier, pushing the number of cases pending more than six months to roughly 5.4 million — up from about 3.6 million a year prior. For a processing-time site, this is the trend that widens predicted decision windows across most form types.
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Independent analysis of USCIS's own data (Niskanen Center) indicates USCIS completed roughly 40% as many cases in April 2026 as it did in April 2025. The backlog of cases pending more than six months grew to about 5.4 million, up from roughly 3.6 million a year earlier.
The slowdown coincides with several 2026 developments: temporary pauses on certain benefit adjudications (some of which federal courts blocked in June 2026), heightened vetting and discretion in adjudications, and staffing shifts within the agency. The net effect on filers is longer waits and wider uncertainty bands, unevenly distributed across form types and field offices.
Not every form is affected equally — naturalization (N-400) has held up comparatively well — but adjustment-of-status and employment-based petitions have seen the sharpest movement in the wrong direction.
Why it matters here
This is the core signal CasePredictor exists to track. As USCIS's monthly processing-time data absorbs the slowdown, the calculator's p50/p93 estimates widen accordingly — so a prediction made today may sit meaningfully higher than one from six months ago. The Trends and Dashboard pages make the direction of travel visible; if your case is past the p80 band, the escalation-steps card walks through the standard remedies.
Sources & further reading
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